You can watch Dr. Fagers victory in the 1968 Californian on YouTube (Harry Henson has the call). Beyer Speed Figures assign a numerical value to thoroughbred racehorses in the US and Canada, where the top stakes horses will have numbers in the 100's, while even better performances will be in the 120's. The Beyer Speed number is used exclusively with the Daily Racing Form. Its purpose is to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives. Based at Keeneland, Ward owns a farm next to the track where he privately stands Hootenanny, winner of the 2014 Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot in England and Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (G1T). THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. Going to take him to Laurel (Park) and give him to (trainer) Brittany Russell. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010 and Mandaloun in 2021, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.) He attributes his love for horse racing to two things: his grandfather who used to listen to horse races on the radio broadcasted from the now defunct Ak-Sar-Ben race track in Omaha, Nebraska and a Sports Illustrated subscription in the 1970s. Forte 6. The track is abbreviated and the number in the exponent is the race number that day (there are typically multiple races at a track on a given day). Angel of Empire 5. Timeless Journey, by Verrazano, defeated fellow Empire State-breds in the March 12 Biogios Rose at the Big A two starts back in her first stakes conquest. Dr. Fager was going to have to carry 130. Benoit told me that he was given the unenviable task of having to call Nerud to tell him that Dr. Fager would be carrying 130 pounds instead of 124. David Ingordo, agent, paid $310,000 for the 4-year-old Dialed In ridglingPeaceful Waters, who earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure when he captured a Keeneland allowance race April 16 in his 2023 debut. A jockey's number of overall starts, victories and win percentage in the calendar year is listed at the far right. Main Track: more than one mile. However, even if you attempt to adjust the raw fractional times to account for American Pharoah racing over a slower track, Justify still comes out as the faster horse over the final 7/16ths of a mile. I had her galloping out in 1:02 and 1:16. I think its the marriage of both the TACTICAL with the HISTORICAL that makes the Derby Strikes System better than any single Derby rule. A number of the categories in the Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Knowing how to decipher the form can make you a more informed bettor. Even though she seems like she would go a one-turn mile just fine, I think we just stick to what we know for now and then explore down the line.. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (McGaughey), Maryquitecontrary (McGaughey), Pass the Champagne (George Weaver), Probable:Big Invasion (Clement), Emaraaty (Brown), Heaven Street (Brendan Walsh), Lucky Curlin (Fernando Abreu), Thin White Duke (David Donk), Yes and Yes (Donk), Possible: Lucky Score (Mark Casse), Straight Answer (Cox), Probable: Minaun (Walsh), Star Devine (Jorge Abreu). Braulio Baeza rode Dr. Fager in the Washington Park Handicap and in all of the headstrong 4-year-old colts other races that year other than his 1968 debut in which John Rotz was the pilot. In nearly every Kentucky Derby prep race, last years winning Beyer figure beat this years Beyer figure. 8. If it fits, well take a shot in there, Handal said. But Medina Spirit was disqualified due to testing positive for traces of betamethasone, a medication that is legal to use but not on race day. Reach Kentucky mens basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter at @RyanABlack. Some of these horses are a little lightly raced and theyre improving. Donk said it is special to train both Thin White Duke and Yes and Yes, who moved to his barn last spring when their previous conditioner, co-owner Gleaves, retired from training. Winners of $65,000 twice since September 1, 1967 to carry 3 lbs. 2 on the earnings list, raced 16 times. A lot of the races (this year) were run on off tracks, so that might take away from it a little bit, said Bob Baffert, who trained American Pharoah and Dortmund last year and has Mor Spirit this year. Did Secretariat change the sport of horse racing? David Lanigan, agent for Heider Family Racing, paid $310,000 for Hibernacle, a 2-year-old filly by Hootenanny, who on April 12 won her debut by 7 1/2 lengths at Keeneland. Bred by Hibiscus Stables, Funny How is a half-sister to multiple New York-bred stakes winner Funny Guy. ARE DECLINING BEYERS A BIG DEAL? Last time out, Nyquist posted a 94 Beyer figure to win the Florida Derby. (The horse is not a gelding.) Racing over a fast main track, Arabian Knight covered 7 furlongs in 1:21.98 to generate an eye-catching 97 Beyer Speed Figure. What time is the Kentucky Derby?Here's your complete guide to the 2023 race. 342 Forte (29) 2. 6. So what are the most important things you need to know when making your picks for win, place and show? American Pharoah had to battle better talent (in my opinion) in Dortmund, Frosted and Keen Ice. Maximum Security finished first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. THE LUMBER GUY SA 6 11/03/2012 107 GOLDEN HORN KEE 12 10/31/2015 106 TRINNIBERG BEL 7 06/09/2012 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah recorded the highest Beyer 106 WELL SPELLED PRX 6 . American Pharoah had to battle better talent (in my opinion) in Dortmund, Frosted and Keen Ice. He has won at 1 1/16 miles and at 5 1/2 furlongs in Saratoga, so he should be OK.. He was a very energetic horse. Dr. Carpe Diem ran a 102 to win last years Blue Grass Stakes; Brodys Cause a 91 this year. But he could punch a hole in the wind. ( 60) Rocket Can 11. Real-time updates and all local stories you want right in the palm of your hand. Into Mischief colt Talladega consigned as Hip 76 at theKeeneland April Selected Horses of Racing Age Sale, Horse of the Year Havre de Grace Dies at 16, Confidence Game's Kentucky Derby Entry a 'Celebration', Wild On Ice Euthanized Following Derby Work, Godolphin Returns to Classic Stage With Two in KY Oaks, Commissioner Dan Goes for $500K to Top Keeneland Sale, Rocket Can Blasts Out Final Derby Drill for Mott, Reincarnate to be Starlight's 14th KY Derby Starter, Plus News, Analysis, Entries, Results & Replays, Wolfs Reflect on KY Derby Wins From Justify, Authentic, Three Things You Might Not Know About: Angel Of Empire, Catching Up With Old Friends: Silver Charm, Brad Cox Discusses Oaks Contender Wet Paint, Macadamia Holds off Quattroelle in Wilshire Stakes, Opinion: Gambling White Paper Lacks Real Action. Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Peter Searles and Patty Searles popular New York-bred City Man is scheduled to make his next start on May 6 in the Grade 2, $200,000 Fort Marcy at nine furlongs over the Belmont Park turf. It begins with the date, listed in day-month-year format. This website does not endorse or encourage illegal gambling. MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM I developed my Derby Strikes System (DSS) back in 1999. The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. It is so hard to buy a yearling in September, Lanigan said. Only three current candidates for the May 6 Kentucky Derby have an official triple-digit BSF to their credit. For his 2 3/4-length win over Medina Spirit, he earned a 112 Beyer Speed Figure, highest of the weekend, according to the Daily Racing Form leaderboard. I feel pretty blessed to see both race live and anxiously await Justifys next race. 21 Laoban and No. These figures may also be part of the reason pedigree being another undefeated Nyquist probably wont be a prohibitive favorite Saturday. His speed figures and final times in the Derby and Preakness were not among the sport's elite Those knocks were of course muted in the Belmont Stakes, Haskell and again in the Breeders' Cup where he produced an eye popping 120 Beyer speed figure for his 2:00.7 frolic, the highest number produced at a mile or more in North America this . The talented David Donk-trained duo ofThin White DukeandYes and Yesare slated to make their return to stakes level in the $150,000 Elusive Quality, a seven-furlong turf sprint for older horses, on May 6 at Belmont Park. Disarm finished third, 4 1/4 lengths behind Arabian Lion. Consequently, First Mission is expected to make his next start in the Preakness on May 20. Horseplayers without the Beyers would assume Destin was the quicker horse by about a length. All rights reserved. "It would entail a lengthy search to find a better representative of the Thoroughbred breed Justify exudes power However, Randy Moss of the Beyer Speed Figure-making team has stated that the victorious Derma Sotogakes figure in that race is estimated to be in the triple-digit range. The track conditions on the day of the race also are abbreviations: "fr" (frozen), "fst" (fast), "gd" (good), "hy" (heavy), "my" (muddy), "sl" for slow, "sly" for sloppy, and "wf" (wet-fast). Hunter Valley Farm, agent, consigned Hibernacle, who is entered to race in the $200,000 Kentucky Juvenile Stakes May 4 at Churchill Downs. The points are listed below (if two or more horses have the same number of points, the tiebreaker is earnings in non-restricted stakes race): Rank (Points) Horse 1. Bob Baffert's highly regarded Spielberg, a gutty runner-up in two summertime starts, looms the horse to beat in Saturday's Grade I, $300,000 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita Park.For 2-year-olds at a mile and one sixteenth, the American Pharoah has attracted a field of eight. There have only been 13 Triple Crown winners. Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Location: Southeastern PA. Posts: 3,037. country to country. 29 avril 2022 Michael Dubb acquired Spirit of St Louis, a 4-year-old gelding by Medaglia d'Oro, for $280,000. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. I dont need somebody doing a mathematical formula telling me he ran well.. 209 Art Collector (6) 4. For context: The highest BSF since he created the system was a 133 by Groovy in 1987. Rising Market came in third, while sprint star Kissin George ended up 10th. Since Justify did not race as a 2-year-old, we really need to focus on their 3-year-old campaigns and, more specifically, their Grade 1 stakes races. Consigned by Highgate Sales, agent, he is out of Unicorn Girl, a winning daughter of A. P. Five Hundred. type. 53 Confidence Game, watch Dr. Fagers victory in the 1968 Californian on YouTube, Jon White: Beyer Figures vis-a-vis the Kentucky Derby. This website assumes no responsibility for the actions by and makes no The purse is , 2023 Kentucky Derby Entries Odds and Predictions: Confidence Game The 149th Kentucky Derby (G1) presented by Woodford Reserve will be run on Saturday, May 6, , 2023 Kentucky Derby Entries Odds and Predictions: Disarm The 149th Kentucky Derby (G1) presented by Woodford Reserve will be run on Saturday, May 6, at , 2023 Kentucky Derby Entries Odds and Predictions: Sun Thunder At first glance, its easy to dismiss maiden winner Sun Thunder as a serious contender to , Justifys breeding rights sold for a record $75 Million, Looking Ahead to the Second-Half of the Season in the 3-year-old Division, 2023 Kentucky Derby Entries Odds and Predictions: Angel of Empire, 2023 Kentucky Derby Entries Odds and Predictions: Raise Cain, 2023 Kentucky Derby Entries, Odds, Futures and Predictions: Confidence Game, 2023 Kentucky Derby Entries Odds and Predictions: Disarm, 2023 Kentucky Derby Entries Odds and Predictions: Sun Thunder. Bred in Kentucky by Robert and Lawana Low, Promiseher America is out of the Unbridleds Song mare Promisedyouheaven, whose dam Hurricane Bernie is a half-sister to dual Grade 1 Breeders Cup Turf Sprint winner Mizdirection [2012-13]. It is pretty simple to me: If Justify is going to elevate himself above American Pharoah, he needs to become the sports first Super Grand Slam Champion of American thoroughbred racing. American Pharoah must be given credit for consistency. Since the Daily Racing Form started printing the great Andy Beyer's speed figures in 1991, only two colts. This is a sale that is perfectly positioned on the calendar, immediately after the end of our Spring Meet and just before the Kentucky Derby, Keeneland vice president of sales Tony Lacy said. Also, Derma Sotogakes UAE figure would be higher than the Beyer for the older Ushba Tesoras victory on the same card in the second-richest horse race in the world, the $12 million Dubai World Cup. dr katie columbus zoo. Hoffman Thoroughbreds and Tom McCrocklinsPromiseher Americarecorded her final serious piece of work in preparation for the Grade 1, $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks on May 6 at Churchill Downs, when going a half-mile in 49.77 seconds over a fast Belmont Park training track. We were looking for a (son of) Quality Road for racing in Saudi Arabia, Lanz said. He needs to beat the best in the older horse division before he can knock American Pharoah from his throne. He produced a career best 120 Beyer Speed Figure-the top Beyer recorded this year and the highest ever recorded for a 3 year-old at a distance 1 1/4 mile or greater since Beyer Speed Figures were first recorded in 1993. . The strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below: 2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3) 2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4* 2020 race run in September 2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3** 2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7 2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1 2016 Nyquist (0 strikes) 2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes) 2014 California Chrome (0 strikes) 2013 Orb (0 strikes) 2012 Ill Have Another (0 strikes) 2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes) 2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4 2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9 2008 Big Brown (0 strikes) 2007 Street Sense (0 strikes) 2006 Barbaro (0 strikes) 2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5 2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes) 2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8 2002 War Emblem (0 strikes) 2001 Monarchos (0 strikes) 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6 1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5 1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes) 1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4 1996 Grindstone (0 strikes) 1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes) 1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes) 1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5 1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes) 1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes) 1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3 1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes) 1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes) 1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2 1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4 1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes) 1984 Swale (0 strikes) 1983 Sunnys Halo (1 strike) Category 1 1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3 1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1 1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes) 1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes) 1978 Affirmed (0 strikes) 1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes) 1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes) 1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes) 1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4 1973 Secretariat (0 strikes) *Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money **Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEMS CATEGORIES What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? He matched that 100 figure when he eked out a nose victory in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles. ( 40) King Russell * UAE Derby third Continuar has been extended an invitation to compete in the Kentucky Derby for accruing 40 points in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series. Justify's main competition has really come from two colts: Bolt d'Oro and Good Magic. It was exactly what I wanted. Some people swear by the Beyer Speed Figures. Two Phils 9. On the top right is a breakdown of a horse's career statistics, broken down by year as well as how it has fared on different surfaces. A good Beyer Speed Figure is anything above 100; a figure 115 or greater means the horse is considered among the best in the United States. 2 to No. A good horse generally holds a Beyer number around 100 while the best horses rate in the mid 110's to 120's. As a believer and maker of my own figures for almost four decades, it . A Derby rule meant that a horse needed to have done this or that, or not done this or that, in order to win the Kentucky Derby. A jockey's statistics at the track are listed beside their name: their number of starts, followed by first-, second- and third-place finishes; the final number is the jockey's winning percentage. With grass racing they get a break in the winter, so they come back fresh and renewed. Yes and Yes finished a nose ahead of Thin White Duke with both of the seasoned geldings finishing just 1 1/2 lengths behind Nothing Better, who won the race in a course record time of 1:06.80. In two of that years Kentucky Derby preps, Destin stopped the timer for the 1 1/16 miles of the Tampa Bay Derby in 1:42.82. He had zero strikes. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who werent either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.) This is listed above a horse's past performances. Dark Horse Contender A contender that I've been keen on at a price for the Kentucky Derby for a long time is Two Phil's. it is a grade i race run over a distance of 9.5 furlongs ( 1. Rick Lee's Friday's picks and analysis for the Breeders' Cup So whats the key to Kentuckys post-Will Levis offense? People are coming. Secretariats Paris home honoring him with park, mural and sculpture. IN THREE STARTS IN 2022: 1st King T. Leatherbury S. off a 13-month lay-off 2nd Saratoga' Troy S.-G3 (100 Beyer), by a head to 2021 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint-G1 winner GOLDEN PAL 3rd Jaipur S.-G1 (101 Beyer), a length to three-time G1 SW CASA CREED By KODIAC Perennial Leading 2-Year-Old Sire and son of the Legendary DANEHILL Champion European . They are listed below: Beyer Horse (Finish, Race) 101 Two Phil's (1st, Jeff Ruby) 100 Practical Move (1st, Santa Anita Derby) 100 Practical Move (1st, San Felipe) 100 Mandarin Hero (2nd, Santa Anita Derby) There were no official Beyers for the UAE Derby. TOP 10 IN THIS WEEKS NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes) 1. Practical Move 2. Normally, when there are two favored front-runners in a race, there would be concern that. I know Yes and Yes has a big affinity for Belmont, so it will be fun to get them back over here.. Materiality posted a 110 when he won the same race last year. Talladega was consigned by ELiTE, agent for WinStar Racing. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Frosted ran a 103 to win last years Wood Memorial; Outwork a 93 this year. Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946), Citation (1948), Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977), Affirmed (1978), American Pharoah (2015 . He has produced. Then study the distances the horse has run and the track conditions in the next column. Philip Gleaves, Steven Crist, Ken deRegt and Bryan Hilliards New York-bred Thin White Duke and Gleaves, Joseph Straus, Jr., and Hugh Fitzsimons Yes and Yes both made their seasonal debut in an April 13 optional claimer sprinting six furlongs over the Aqueduct outer turf, finishing a respective fifth and fourth with off-the-pace trips. As I see it, another negative for Forte in the Kentucky Derby is hes been unable to be first or second a furlong out in both of his last two starts. Subscribe FREE Today! I mean, I saw my horse loop 13 horses and gallop under the wire with his ears pricked. All systems are go.. She literally nailed the first eighth in 12 and three [seconds] and picked it up from there. Copyright 2023 US Racing, All Rights Reserved. The form provides a wealth of information on the participating horses, including how they've done in prior races, how fast they are and more. Fager was a singular performer as a 4-year-old in 1968, Charles Hatton wrote in the American Racing Manual. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunnys Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.) Beyer Speed Figure question (Belmont) Steve, If you get the chance to ask Andy on a future occasion, I was wondering if the comparison of American Pharoah's Belmont performance versus that of Secretariat would change either quantity from a speed figure perspective. If you look at his racing trend he is due for another big 100-plus Beyer, a speed figure that indicates he could be tough to beat. (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.) They are Reincarnate and Kingsbarns. 76 Verifying 9. As for Kentucky basketballs future roster construction, pardon the mess. 261 Practical Move (1) 4. And I think he has a few more big wins left in the tank. But that's what I'm about to [] This story was originally published May 5, 2016, 1:27 PM. It is tough to pull off a Triple Crown championship. He earned a 94 Beyer Speed Figure for the gate-to-wire victory, the highest by any 3-year-old in 2022. He followed up with two more victories, including the . noting the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby ranked among the fastest Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers from a Beyer and Brisnet speed figure perspective. Although there have been some grumblings that the 2018 sophomore class is not up to snuff with more recent classes, I think this is a great class but, admittedly, I dont think its as good as American Pharoahs in 2015. Useful or useless, the Beyers provide one way to compare horses. Thats if you go by the Beyer Speed Figures, the calculations put forth by the writer, longtime horse player and numbers savant Andrew Beyer published by the Daily Racing Form. We had great participation from established buyers and also new owners, and it was great to see Saudi Arabian participation., Seven of the top 10 highest-priced horses were last-out winners, Keeneland director of sales operations Cormac Breathnach said. Using this information to contravene any law or statute is prohibited. 84 Codys Wish (1) TOP 10 IN THIS WEEKS NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes) 1. Hoffman Thoroughbreds and Tom McCrocklins Promiseher America recorded her final serious piece of work in preparation for the Grade 1, $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks on May 6 at Churchill Downs, when going a half-mile in 49.77 seconds over a fast Belmont Park training track. The strikes for the current Kentucky Derby candidates are listed below: ZERO STRIKES Angel of Empire Derma Sotogake Hit Show Major Dude Practical Move Tapit Trice ONE STRIKE Confidence Game (Category 5) Forte (Category 3) Kingsbarns (Category 7) Lord Miles (Category 3) Raise Cain (Category 5) Reincarnate (Category 4) Rocket Can (Category 5) Two Phils (Category 4) Wild On Ice (Category 8) TWO STRIKES Blazing Sevens (Categories 3 and 6) Cyclone Mischief (Categories 2 and 4) Disarm (Categories 2 and 3) Jaces Road (Categories 2 and 4) Mandarin Hero (Categories 1 and 2) Skinner (Categories 2 and 3) Sun Thunder (Categories 2 and 3) Verifying (Categories 2 and 4) THREE STRIKES Continuar (Categories 2, 3 and 4) King Russell (Categories 1, 2 and 3) Mage (Categories 2, 4 and 7) WINNERS STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973 Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I cant go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners.
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